I have found a very interesting analysis about the use of epidemiology and modelling for policy making in an article from The Economist published on Apr 4 with the title « The hard choices Covid policy makers face ».

This article is a good example of the importance to escape to the « noise » created by a maelström of messages, comments, opinions, true and fake data and other pseudo scientific evidence that come out of the media and from Internet. In those Covid-19 days, especially while being in lockdown during already 8 weeks, the most difficult is to avoid to be absorbed by such a flow that is highly unstable and unreliable, and that conveys contradictory messages that can only lead to a depressive state of mind and a feeling of absolute despair.

A significant part of this negative flow relates to « exit » or « Post-Covid » strategies, to the possible future waves (are we going for a second or a third one, is it going to happen in June, in the Summer, in the Autumn, etc.). But it does so in a way that does not bring any reflection, nor any orientation to figure out what are the key questions. In such condition it does not come as a surprise to see that the main result is an increase of the confusion about how to think our future. Therefore every time that I will find a paper, an article or a report that brings some food for thought, I will share it with you on this blog.

Why this briefing in particular? I find that it puts into perspective statistical modelling, other methods and approaches and their respective limitations, both from epidemiology and economics.